GOP Doubles Down on Anti-Immigrant Agenda Amid Strong Voter Support for Legal Pathways

CAMPAIGN CATCH UP

In case you missed it: Amid news that former President Donald Trump is promising mass deportations in which “no one should be off the table,” Immigration Hub released the results of a new battleground poll demonstrating that voters overwhelmingly support President Biden taking executive action to provide paths to citizenship and legal status for long-settled undocumented immigrants, including workers, caregivers, and spouses of U.S. citizens.

The poll, conducted in key battleground states (AZ, GA, MI, NV, NC, PA, WI) by Global Strategy Group (GSG) and BSP Research, found that:

• Voters prefer (66%) a balanced approach to the immigration system and report high levels of support for policies addressing both border security and paths to citizenship and legal status for long-settled undocumented immigrants.
  • 82% support creating pathways to citizenship for immigrants who have been living in the U.S. for many years and pass a background check and pay taxes.
  • 74% of battleground voters (84% of Hispanic voters) support expanding the ability for family caregivers to stay here legally, and 73% support the same for undocumented immigrants married to a U.S. citizen or legal resident.
  • 91% support investing in increased screening capacity at the border to find fentanyl and other illegal drugs.
  • 89% support improving technology and infrastructure at the border.
• While many voters are unaware of President Biden's accomplishments on immigration, they support what the President has done when they learn more about it and increase their trust in him on the issue.
  • After voters have seen President Biden’s policy successes and messaging against Trump and Republicans on immigration, their trust in Biden over Trump to handle the issue improves, ending with 51% trusting Biden more (vs 47% trusting Trump more).
• Donald Trump and Republicans have vulnerabilities on immigration that Democrats can take advantage of with targeted messaging.
  • 58% of voters find it concerning that “Donald Trump and Republicans want to bring back cruel policies that do nothing to secure the border or fix our immigration system, including the inhumane family separation policy that separated children from their parents at the border.”
  • 58% of voters find it concerning that “Donald Trump and Republicans have consistently used fear, hate, and racism in the way they speak about immigrants – which has emboldened white supremacists and MAGA extremists and made immigrants targets for hate and violence.”
  • In fact, 54% of voters (including 87% of Democrats and 67% of Latino voters) oppose the kind of mass deportations that the former President is promising to carry out if re-elected in November.

Taken together, the findings identify a window of opportunity for President Biden and Democrats to rebuild the immigration system and motivate key voting blocs by rejecting extremist policies and rhetoric and delivering on what Americans agree is the right approach– addressing challenges at the border with sensible solutions and offering a path to citizenship to hard-working undocumented immigrants in the U.S.

DATA DISINFORMATION 

In its latest analysis of 11 battleground states (AZ, FL, GA, MI, NC, NV, PA, OH, TX, VA, WI) conducted through AdImpact, the Hub found that candidates, PACs, and other groups spent nearly $38 million on 341 anti-immigrant TV ads covering federal and down ballot races during the first quarter of 2024. The ads aired in AZ, MI, NC, OH, TX, and WI, and they garnered 2.3 billion views. 

Although the largest spend was in Ohio ($15.9m), North Carolina had the largest share of ads focused on immigration (40%). Texas was a close second with $12.8 million in immigration ads and 37% of all ads. 

The top buzzwords employed in the ads were “border” (342 mentions),  “crime” (52 mentions), “crisis” (5 mentions), “drugs” (9 mentions), and “wall” (20 mentions). 

The Immigration Hub also used Critical Mention to track negative immigration mentions and found 4,693 instances to an estimated audience of 19 billion people across right-wing media outlets during the month of March. There was a notable spike in negative immigration mentions on March 21st after dueling court rulings put into question enactment of Texas Senate Bill 4, which aims to authorize local police to arrest people they suspect to have crossed into Texas from Mexico outside of a legal point of entry. 

Negative Immigration Mentions in Right-Wing Media - March 2024 

MESSAGING FOR THE MOMENT

The Immigration Hub partnered with Swayable to survey battleground voters’ response to a video highlighting Donald Trump’s rhetoric and policies on immigration. From vowing mass deportation to accusing immigrants of “poisoning the blood of our country,” the video provides unfiltered and raw footage of Trump’s promises and attacks against immigrants. Battleground voters (in AZ, GA, MI, NC, NV, OH, PA, TX [CDs 15 and 34], WI) overwhelmingly found Trump’s promise to deport immigrants en masse the most concerning.

The test, which was fielded on April 10th (N=1,619 [802 test sample, 817 control group]), was successful at increasing the importance of immigration to respondents’ vote choice (+6.3) after they watched the video. Mass deportation rose to the top (+6) of the Trump immigration policies about which people are most concerned. 

While there is some polling which shall not be named that has sensationalized a supposed shift in favor of mass deportation, the reality is mass deportation and family separation are Trump and the GOP’s biggest vulnerabilities. Reminding voters that these two policies are threats to the American family, our democracy, workers and our economy is a messaging advantage for President Biden and Democrats.

POLICY PRIORITIES 

According to a recent analysis by FWD.us, more than two-thirds (68%) of undocumented individuals in the U.S. lacking deportation protection have been waiting a decade or more for immigration relief.

Last week, key progressive leaders called on President Biden to meet the moment and protect American families with executive action on immigration. The speakers urged the President to advance legal pathways that would allow as many as 3 million Dreamers, family caregivers, spouses of U.S. citizens and other long-settled immigrants to continue working and contributing to their families and communities. With bipartisan reform efforts stalled in Congress, immigration is a priority issue for voters who are eager for balanced solutions that address both border security and paths to citizenship for long-settled immigrant communities.

• Learn more about the key administrative asks:
  • Making Relief for Family Caregivers More Accessible
  • Work Permits for Spouses of Americans
  • Streamlining Access to Work Visas for Homegrown Talent

Expanding legal pathways represents a critical opportunity for President Biden and Democrats to galvanize critical voters ahead of the November elections. Senator Alex Padilla (D-CA), a long-time immigration champion, agrees:

“Don’t be afraid, don’t be reluctant to talk about immigration. Lean into it,” Padilla said. “Because number one, it’s the morally right thing to do. Number two, it is key to the strength, the security and the future of our country.”

ICYMI: The Immigration Hub has expanded its online presence, now engaging audiences on Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, and Instagram. Follow us on these platforms to stay informed about the latest news, impactful stories, and opportunities to advocate for positive immigration reform. Join conversations, stay informed about updates, and become an integral part of our community committed to unity and equity.

📸 Stay tuned and follow along as we share some of our more recent moments and highlights from our social media channels.

1️⃣ ICYMI: According to our recent poll conducted with Global Strategy Group and BSP Research, battleground voters are expressing opposition to Trump-era immigration policies. Instead, they are endorsing a balanced approach advocated by President Biden, one that prioritizes both border security and the provision of a pathway to citizenship for undocumented communities who have long been established.

2️⃣ Meet Lia Parada, our Chief Advocacy Officer! Lia has considerable expertise in working with Congress and steering national advocacy campaigns involved in crucial policy battles. Within the Hub, Lia takes charge of advocacy campaigns aimed at major policy reforms.

3️⃣ ICYMI: Key national advocacy figures have voiced strong support for efforts to grant affirmative relief to long-standing undocumented immigrants, such as Dreamers, spouses of U.S. citizens, and individuals from nations eligible for Temporary Protected Status (TPS).

4️⃣ Immigrants form the foundation of our economy, contributing through diligent work, tax payments, entrepreneurial ventures, and addressing essential labor shortages. They play a pivotal role in propelling our economy forward, ensuring our competitiveness on an international level. Together, we forge a more resilient and globally competitive economy for everyone.

Follow Us Across Platforms:

👍 Facebook: The Immigration Hub

🐦 X/Twitter: @USimmhub

🔗 LinkedIn: The Immigration Hub

📸 Instagram: @TheImmigrationHub