How Immigration Became the Top Concern for Americans

CAMPAIGN CATCH-UP

The latest Gallup poll seems to be sending the media and right-wing pundits and politicians into a tizzy. According to the survey results, Americans named immigration the top most important problem facing the country for February. While we readily agree that the immigration system is a significant issue in our nation that needs to be urgently addressed, we’re also not surprised that Americans are paying attention to the issue more so than in previous months. 

Why all the fuss: By the numbers

At the time of this poll, U.S. Senators were politicking on a bipartisan border deal, which was later upended by Trump and Republicans on both sides of the chamber. Just like in July and November of 2018, when immigration topped concerns again because of talk of “caravans” and “invasion,” today’s moment is thanks to the outsized, right-wing machinery online and via linear TV, paid and unpaid, coupled with Governor Abbott and other governors’ dehumanizing political stunts that immigration is once again top of mind. 

Immigration is not just an electoral wedge issue for the Trump campaign and Republican Party, but an escalation strategy to flood the zone, manipulate the media narrative, distract and scare persuadable voters, and pit communities against each other.

• In 2022, right-wing candidates and groups spent over $171 million on anti-immigrant TV ads - the number doesn’t include other paid communications. 
• In 2023, according to the Immigration Hub’s monitoring via Critical Mentions, right-wing media outlets covered immigration over 46,000 times throughout the year while mainstream media mentioned the issue over 43,000 times.
• Since October 2023, Media Matters found that Meta has earned at least $397,500 from ads promoting anti-immigrant “invasion” rhetoric. Over 75% of the total spending on these ads during the time frame came from the conservative legal organization Judicial Watch.
• From 2023 to January 2024, 21% of the GOP primary presidential candidates ads mentioned immigration, just 1 point away from the top mentioned issue - economy.  
• NY-03 surge spending: According to AdImpact, immigration was the most mentioned issue across broadcast television ads in the NY-03 race. Democratic ad spending on immigration reached just over $6 million, while Republican spending on the issue topped over $8 million–mentioning immigration four times more frequently than any other issue. 
• 2024 projections: GroupM projects nearly $16 billion in ad spending while AdImpact estimates more than $10 billion in political advertising. You don’t have to be a clairvoyant to predict off-the-charts spending on anti-immigrant narratives.

DATA DISINFORMATION

In a study conducted last year, the Immigration Hub used Blackbird.AI’s Narrative & Risk Intelligence Platform to study disinformation efforts during the 2022 cycle. The most fascinating finding was the sophisticated coordination between right wing media and their reporters, far right influencers, dark web communities, right wing politicians and anti-immigrant advocacy groups. This coordination was further amplified by bot-like engagement; in fact, 25% of the authors on the social media platforms amplifying the anti-immigrant discussions were flagged as bots. After identifying and reviewing six million conversations on multiple platforms, these entities were driving harmful immigration narratives – the top prevailing narratives across platforms included: 

• Violent and dehumanizing language (such as “insects” or “roaches”). Across platforms, there were over 250,000 posts, 143,139 authors, and 6,351,869 engagements. Anomalous activity: 50,413 posts (22%). Bot-like activity: 35,884 authors (28%).
• Drugs and crime mentions. Across platforms, there were over 167,000 posts, 112,429 authors, and 1,556,889 engagements. Anomalous activity: 38,571 posts (26%). Bot-like activity: 28,166 authors (28%).

Ultimately, these narratives create a skewed picture to the neutral observer, galvanize the anti-immigrant right who assume a false quorum and demoralize the pro-immigration left. Fast forward to 2024, not only are we not surprised that these disinformation tactics have escalated and moved the national conversation to immigration and concerns about drug-trafficking and fentanyl, but we’re also very worried about how the 2022 model with an AI add-on is already being turbo-charged in the lead up to November.

MESSAGING FOR THE MOMENT

As Trump and his kin continue to combine the border and drugs (i.e.: “the invasion bringing fentanyl to America’s neighborhoods”) to attack President Biden and Democrats, it’s important to both debunk and smartly go on offense without moving to the right. Here’s our recommendation based on the data:

• Last week’s Navigator Poll found that the top two most concerning statements on Republicans’ approach to immigration focused on their failure to provide solutions and their efforts to score political points. Combining a version of both hits a sweet spot: Republicans in Congress continue to distract with their political games and refusal to work with Democrats while they push plans to separate families and deport Dreamers, instead of focusing on providing solutions that matter most to Americans, like inflation and sensible immigration reform. 
• Balance above all: The American people want BOTH an investment in border security AND a pathway to citizenship for Dreamers and hard-working immigrants. Popular border solutions: orderly and humane processing of children and families, cracking down on drug and human traffickers, and increasing screening capacity. Even more popular fixes: Path to citizenship or a way for undocumented immigrants, including Dreamers, to gain legal status. 
• Socialize solutions: After Trump nearly decimated the immigration system, the Biden administration took action to restore critical policies and deliver robust solutions for legal immigration. Here’s a snapshot of those solutions.