Polls Show Harris Can Carve A Path to Victory With a Unifying Message on Immigration

As the Democratic National Convention enters its third day, voters are increasingly eager to hear from candidates and elected officials on immigration. In fact, the Immigration Hub’s research has found that the majority of the public is still unaware of where Democrats stand on the issue and what they’ve done on it, leaving Trump and Republicans to fill in the blanks with record-breaking spending on anti-immigrant attack ads this year. 

The good news is that when voters become aware that Democrats stand for a balanced approach to fixing the nation’s immigration system and have delivered on policies that both address the border and create legal pathways for Dreamers and workers in the U.S., a majority of voters, including Latino and swing voters, support and move towards Democrats. The essential ingredient to this message that resonates and mobilizes voters Harris needs to win is “keeping families together” – both a strong contrast against Trump and a popular solution.

A deeper dive of polling from the Immigration Hub, ACLU, Equis, Somos Votantes, and Vera Action illustrates the need for the Harris-Walz campaign to expand beyond their position on border security and lean into the strongest contrast against Trump’s rhetoric by promoting citizenship and keeping families together. Simply, it is not enough to advertise or stump on her record to secure the border; Harris must go on offense with what she’s done to fight for families and her bold vision to deliver a pathway to citizenship if she is elected president.

• A July 2024 poll conducted by Global Strategy Group and BSP Research, on behalf of the Immigration Hub, found that 64% of battleground voters  (75% of Latinos) supported the executive action for protections for Dreamers and DACA Recipients, 59% (73% of Latinos) support for legal status for undocumented spouses, and 56% (54% of Latinos) support for asylum restrictions. Support for the actions on spouses and Dreamers is particularly strong among Hispanic voters, while support for all three actions are over 60% with swing voters (those voters not strongly with President Biden or Trump). 
• In the same Hub poll, after communicating the basic facts about the Biden-Harris actions on spouses and Dreamers/DACA recipients, President Biden’s job approval goes up an additional 7 points across the battleground (from 45% to 52%), and an additional 12 points with Hispanics (from 50% to 62%). Swing voters (56% approve) move up 17 points on this, and younger Hispanics 18-29 move up 18 points. 
• Lastly, the Hub poll also showed that half of voters found the Biden-Harris actions on keeping families together (spouses, Dreamers/DACA) to be more motivating (50% makes them more motivated to vote/42% no impact/8% less motivated) than the asylum order. Just over a third of voters found the asylum order to be motivating (37% more motivated/55% no impact/8% less motivated). In particular, the action on keeping families together is more motivating to left-leaning swing voters that Democrats need to consolidate (65% motivated by keeping families together; 32% motivated by asylum) and younger Latino voters 18-29 (52% motivated by keeping families together; 26% motivated by asylum). Notably, with younger Hispanics, just as many are “less motivated” by the asylum order (26%) as “more motivated” by it (26%).
• In a July poll by Somos Votantes and BSP Research, the poll found that a “message pairing increased border security with a path to legalization for various groups of undocumented immigrants living here—which Harris favors and Trump opposes—leads 65 percent of Latinos to view Harris more favorably. Messages about her status as the daughter of immigrants have very wide appeal among them.”
• In a July message test conducted by EquisLabs, one of the top messages to move Latino voters in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris by more than 2pts included, “Kamala Harris has been a fierce advocate for immigrants and Dreamers throughout her career. Like most Americans, she believes that ‘government should be in the business of keeping families together, not tearing them apart.’ That’s why she worked with President Biden on a new executive action that will keep American families together by ensuring undocumented spouses of American citizens… can apply for permanent residence without having to leave the country.”
• In another EquisLabs poll in June, a majority of swing voters moved in favor of President Biden, agreeing that a pathway for undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens would make them more likely to vote for the president.   
• The ACLU conducted a series of polls, documenting their findings in the Battleground Blueprint Playbook, highlighting that 71% of voters in six battleground congressional districts found the following message convincing, “The immigration system is broken. We have many people who want to become citizens and who already contribute to our economy and communities. We need to create a fair, orderly, and humane immigration system that manages the border and provides a path to citizenship for longtime residents.”
• ACLU’s research also found that when voters are presented exclusively with “tough-on-immigration” messaging that centers a punitive approach to immigration without legal pathways, the Democratic candidate loses to their opponent. 
• In June, a Vera Action and Immigration Hub poll conducted by PerryUndem, the top message to counter the right and move voters in favor of Democrats, included, “We all deserve safety and security. I’m focused on solutions, not scare tactics. Let’s secure our border by investing in new technology to detect fentanyl and drugs and prevent them from reaching our communities. Let's make sure there's a pathway to citizenship for families who’ve been here for years. Here at home, let’s fully fund things proven to improve everyone’s quality of life, like good schools, good-paying jobs, health care, and affordable housing. Let’s make life safer, more stable, and secure for all of us.”

Winning Key Votes in AZ, NV and Across Battleground States

The research conclusively demonstrates that the Harris-Walz campaign must expand beyond their talking points on the border and message on Harris’s record of championing immigrant families and fighting for a pathway to citizenship. In particular, there are persuadable and swing voters, including Latinos, who Harris needs to win over in Arizona and Nevada where the margins are thin. These voters need to be presented with both positions – (1) Harris’s record on the border, cracking down on fentanyl and transnational gangs, and most importantly (2) her commitment to keeping American families together and delivering a pathway to citizenship while reminding voters of Trump’s cruelty (family separation and mass deportation)