The Spending on the Wall: The Surge of Right-wing Immigration Ads and the Response Americans Are Eager to Hear

Why voting for bad immigration bills isn’t going to blunt attacks by the far right

Last week, POLITICO reported that One Nation, a right-wing group supported by major GOP leaders and the top GOP super PAC, is investing $70 million more into ad campaigns focused on immigration and cost of living, targeting five Senate battleground states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Montana, Wisconsin and Nevada). The announcement comes off the heels of a new report by the Immigration Hub that found, in the first quarter of 2024, Republican candidates and right-wing groups had spent nearly $40 million on TV ads (not including online ads and other paid communications) attacking President Biden and Democrats on the supposed effects of their “open border” policies. 

Here’s a quick breakdown of Q1 spending:

• In quarter one of 2024, GOP candidates, PACs, and other groups spent over $38 million to fund 338 anti-immigrant TV ads across federal, state, and down-ballot races in six battleground states (AZ, MI, NC, OH, TX, WI). 
• The right-wing ads aired over 84,000 times in critical battleground states (AZ, FL, MI, NC, OH, TX, WI) and were viewed almost 2.3 billion times.
• The top buzzwords employed in the ads were “border” (342 mentions), “crime” (52 mentions), “crisis” (5 mentions), “drugs” (9 mentions), and “wall” (20 mentions). 
• The majority of immigration ads, across party lines, were placed in North Carolina (40%), Texas (37%), and Ohio (29%).

The outsized spending on anti-immigrant TV ads by the right is already on track to exceed 2022 records, when the right spent over $171 million on immigration TV ads. During the GOP presidential primary, more than $259 million were spent on ads – 21% of those ads mentioned immigration, making the issue the second most discussed in their advertising. AdImpact projects that over $10.2 billion will be spent on political advertising this cycle. In the days to come, we can expect record-breaking investments on these hyperbolic, misleading ads aimed at weaponizing the border and immigrants against Biden and Democrats.

Meanwhile, across battleground states, Democrats have spent a little over $1.7 million – the lion’s share of the spending coming from Montana’s Senator Jon Tester and Democratic groups investing in the incumbent’s re-election. According to Punchbowl, there’s “$120 million worth of ads from both sides reserved for the Montana Senate race, a mind-blowing figure for a state of just 1.1 million people.” And, no doubt, the southern border will be at the center of the advertising campaigns in a state bordering Canada. (No, the irony is not lost on us.)

Ceding the issue to Republicans and failing to advertise on immigration is a political misstep.

Montana aside, there’s an alarming disparity between both parties and how much they are willing to spend on one of the top issues for voters. The numbers tell a significant story where Democrats are ceding the issue to Republicans and failing to advertise on immigration. Congressional votes on border bills and flawed legislation attempting to criminalize immigrant populations – no matter how many times you bring them up for a vote – are not an equal or powerful response to the right’s messaging operations and dollars.

In absence of passing bipartisan legislation that addresses both border security and pathway to citizenship, the answer lies in compelling messages that remind voters what’s at stake under a Trump 2.0 administration. Simply put, Democrats need to do ads on immigration. More ads on Trump’s family separation policy and promises for mass deportation (like the recent “Ripped Apart”). Ads on Biden’s success in increasing the seizures of fentanyl and illegal drugs at the border. Ads on children and families reunited, immigrant laborers gaining worker protections and a shot at legal status, military veterans who were deported under Trump and now brought back to become U.S. citizens, and refugees who were welcomed by American families and are contributing to their new communities. 

There are stories to be told. 

There’s also more impressive action that can be done. Just as President Obama had his “DACA moment,” President Biden can meet the moment, stand on the foundation of a system his administration has gradually rebuilt, and boldly deliver legal pathways for Dreamers, family caregivers, spouses of U.S. citizens, and the many more immigrant workers who, for years, have contributed to our country and economy. The American electorate will applaud him for using his executive authority to heed the public’s demands: addressing the challenges at the border AND expanding legal pathways for families and workers who have not been forgotten.

There is still time to re-engineer the playbook. The majority of voters support smart, sensible solutions to our immigration system in response to the opposition’s fear-mongering and cruel policies. Americans are eager to hear the Democratic pitch on immigration. So why not give it to them?